The immediate financial market outlook is risk-off driven by Ukraine, followed by rising fears and concerns about inflation policy mistakes, wondering when to pick the bottom in the tech cycle to buy great ideas, why Boeing should be in jail, and longer-term concerns about where we are going in terms of transition.
I’d like to introduce you to my latest theory on markets: the D-Jay Wave, a 35-year recurring cycle of irrational market exuberance. I have carefully and diligently researched this over a couple of pints.. It’s therefore better underpinned than most SPACs or Disruptive Tech funds. (Glossy pitchdeck not available.)
It’s going to be a testing week for markets as a whole slew of negatives, challenges and no-see-ums threaten to overturn everything. It couldn’t look worse… unless of course you remember my key market mantra (read on), and that the sun usually comes up tomorrow. Happy Valentines..
Just how vulnerable are markets to an escalating distrust of politics, the death of democracy, populism, and authoritarianism, and how much of it is due to deliberate manipulation by bad actors and fake news? Uncertain in uncertain markets isn’t helping.
Markets are up and down, and the noise is focused on Covid, Central Banks, Inflation and Tech stocks. But… perhaps the big risks lie elsewhere. Where are Geopolitics headed? Faceoffs in Ukraine and Taiwan have the potential to completely derail markets.
What can David Attenborough’s Green Planet teach us about Tech Stocks, why they are overvalued, and why rising rates suggest the game is over?
Lots of small signals, rising rates, a tech wobble, Covid vs freedom, China’s Covid crisis and the anniversary of the Capitol riot make for a rich stew of confusion in today’s markets!
“The future may dimly be perceived through the veil of the past”, sounds like bad poetry, but has a point. The confusions and conflabulations that characterised 2021 will likely set the tone for what’s coming – what were the key themes of 2021? Best to understand them before trying to fathom what comes next.
How much safer is the state global diplomacy today than in 1914? And, how the demise of GE illustrates the inevitabilities of corporate evolution, and the threat of mispriced capital.
One simply can’t ignore a bleeping email. So much for being on holiday, but this week I will simply observe and repeat: please don’t break the market while I’m out!
