Financial Idiot of the Year 2022: Nominations Time
There is a long list of contenders for financial idiot of the year. Who will win?
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Blain's Morning Porridge
Financial Commentary for Smart People
Category Capitalism
Did the Fed just make a long term mistake? Is inflation a bad or good thing?
Jerome Powell signalled a slow-down in interest rate hikes – and markets loved it. But did he just make a long-term mistake by not decisively signalling the end of the era of monetary and market distortion? There are lessons to be learnt, not least being the role of inflation in a buoyant economy.
Income inequality – how will a consumption crash and recession impact markets?
How will free-market economies resolve crashing discretionary spending, wage inflation and looming recession when income inequality is so blindingly obvious to electorates? Something has to change.
World Cup, Flu and Where do markets go next?
After some tumultuous weeks in global markets, where do we go from here in terms of the dollar, inflation, energy, China? It’s all terribly complex, but probably good news for some and bad for others. The UK is likely on the loser list.
Big Shifts last week set to dominate markets long term
Last week saw a succession of fundamental shifts in how the global economy is working: inflation, China’s reopening, western politics, crypto, Climate Change, Tech stocks, and in Ukraine. These all have significant potential market implications.
US Mid-Terms the big issue this week – and they don’t bode well for a bounce in stocks or bonds.
US Mid-Terms will dominate the news this week. Gridlocked US politics might be good in terms of zero legislative surprises, but polarisation will punish stocks and diminish the US over the long-term.
Halloween, and a scary market outlook indeed – but not nearly as bad as you may fear!
Halloween is a great time to be scared about markets. They are inconsistent, confused and uncertain, but the reality is even rising interest rates, inflation and trade wars sort themselves out - eventually. The real danger is how much worse bad politics and make a scary situation absolutely frightful.
In Bonds There Is Truth, But Don’t Expect Central Banks to Pivot Early
In Bonds There is Truth – but until Real bond yields turn positive they remain financially repressive. If Central Banks “pivot” from tightening rates to address inflation too early, markets will remain fundamentally distorted.
What comes next? Markets are mean reverting, are you prepared?
Well, that was a fun week… but the UK’s travails are the tip of the iceberg of market pain facing the global economy. More political, geopolitical, liquidity and leverage driven crises are coming as markets reverse out the QE era. Don’t Panic!
Bernanke and Dimon: A curious moment in Markets
While Jamie Dimon warns of recession, Ben Bernanke is picking up a Nobel Prize – yet the roots of the multiple crises threatening to overwhelm markets and topple capitalism lie in the solutions they led 14 years ago. They saved the world then – who will rescue it this time?