Category Capitalism

Half Time Score – how is 2023 likely to shape up for markets?

Markets have been far more positive than expected in 2023 – thus far. There is still much uncertainty out there, but what is the market missing? I have two particular under-played threats to watch – corporate debt and social unrest.

Thames Water – The Straw that broke the UK’s back?

The Thames Water debacle is shaping up to be a critical “Judder” moment for the UK. Public utility privatisations decades ago have left a legacy of underinvestment and broken services. The bills will be enormous – and crippling - creating a potential investment crisis.

The Phillips Curve – Just How Inappropriate a Economic Tool Is It?

Phillips Curve economics calls for higher unemployment to calm inflation. Great plan says The Bank and Chancellor while consigning millions of UK citizens to penury. We need something better than wrecking lives and the economy.

The Best of Times and Worst of Times; The US, UK and Climate Threats

The widening gulf in the outlook for the US and UK economies is stark. UK housing and the mortgage markets are a rising threat – but maybe we are looking at the all the wrong things as the Climate Crisis (oh, yes, remember that) comes back into focus.

Learning from mistakes to call the next ones…

The debt ceiling crisis has lifted a cloud from markets, but we’re still looking for resolution on inflation, geopolitics and a host of other issues. Maybe the real issues are about valuations – which remain over-extraordinary.

It’s not over till it’s over, and it’s not over yet…

The immediate debt ceiling crisis has passed, but it’s not the end of the rolling uncertainty that characterises current markets. The pressures and tensions fuelling political division and driving maket uncertainty are set to increase rather than moderate.

The Long and the Short and the Tall of trying to figure out investment strategies.

Markets are focused on the immediate debt-ceiling crisis, and the short-term game of guessing rates vs inflation. Down the line are the bigger challenges of the medium and long-term: issues we need to be investing in now to garner long-run returns or just to survive!