Markets are focused on the immediate debt-ceiling crisis, and the short-term game of guessing rates vs inflation. Down the line are the bigger challenges of the medium and long-term: issues we need to be investing in now to garner long-run returns or just to survive!
Two parts this morning: What the Bank of England actually said, and The Big Lesson from the Ukraine War is simple: “Things are seldom as bad as we fear, but never as good as we hope.” Global geopolitics and markets have taken a knock, but will coalesce around whatever new global links emerge.
What does £5.40 a coffee tell us about the economy? That inflation is sticky. Do we face a stagflationary bust or a reflationary boom? Either will mean Central Banks have failed. At the heart of today’s economy are a succession of issues to resolve – not least is the need for a reset on corporate behaviours to drive stable growth.
“Prepare to be assimilated species 5618.”
AI is dominating the headlines. Its either the greatest threat to mankind ever (as has been every economic revolution since someone discovered fire), or its going to make us all better off. The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.. but it’s bound to raise uncertainty.
Monday is the May Day Holiday, but the weather is pants and no one has any money anyway… There isn’t much on the horizon that is clear – hunker down for more months of uncertainty.
Microsoft would rather do business in Europe than the UK when it comes to global gaming. Name me a famous European game? BIG TECH is turning stale. Bring on the next new, new thing.
First Republic’s numbers show how close it came to failure – it’s a saga of stale management and bad banking, but reinforced by the pace of rumour and sigh on social media. Will it happen again? Blain’s Rules on Bank Investment may help you avoid the bad’uns..
Markets are thriving, but the news tone is miserable.. how does that happen? Markets aren’t pricing in a rising tide of political friction, plus rising inequality of wealth and opportunity – but these things ultimately matter.
China will remain the driver of global growth as the West continues to slide. The economy is reopening swiftly, raising increased fears of de-dollarisation. It’s easy to get emotional, but the reality is its happening, get used to it, and figure out the outcomes. They may surprise you..
Markets are in wait and see mode – inflation, rates, earnings and all the rest weigh upon them. Back in the real world, the economic reality for young workers trying to find housing security in London feels more and more broken.