Global Markets have nosedived – the UK’s confidence crisis is one trigger alongside rising recession risks, crashing consumer spending and host of indications we ain’t near done on higher interest rates as inflation becomes embedded into economies and dollar strength continues unabated.
The new Truss/Kwarteng grand plan to create a UK High Growth High Wage economy boils down to trickle-down economics, which simply don’t work. They won’t restore the economy, but they may, perversely, boost markets.
Stock and Bond markets having been going up and down since year dot. Get used to it. But we do have long-term problems that won’t be solved effectively by short-term political and market objectives, or by the contradictions that lie at the heart of the human psyche.
The news looks bleak. A cataclysm of gloom is set to sink Europe and the UK – but, maybe things aren’t as bad as we think. Good news and a realisation things can get better could stabilize sentiment, and build a recovery base. Maybe?
Harry Hindsight is the greatest trader who ever lived. He saw the July/August rally was just a bear trap. But, he’s not revealing his thoughts on how much further the market has to correct. Some analysts see mean reversion all the way back to 2008 levels!
As summer wends towards its end, a winter of populist discontent from left and right will make Europe increasingly fraxious. While the US economy will likely be on path to recovery – Europe will still be trending down.
Pretty bleak headlines this morning – sentiment is crashing. Excellent! In crisis there is opportunity. Where and what are they? For clues, look to how the authorities can address the looming crisis!
Central banks, inflation and recession are the visible risks, but what if we are looking at all the wrong things?
Everyone is balancing inflation, economic numbers and this week’s Jackson Hole Central Bank smooze-a-thon to guess markets. What if we are looking at the wrong things – and economic divergence, income and wealth inequality and unravelling domestic politics are the critical factors?
Chips are a critical component of global supply chains – there are significant geopolitical risks inherent in the concentration of semi-conductor production in Taiwan. However, an even bigger geopolitical risk may have been triggered by the FBI raiding Trump’s lair in Mar-a-Lago.
So many contradictions abound in current markets, but it’s possible to cut through the noise to discern some probable direction. The old adage of being confident while others are fearful looks one way to approach the current confusion.