Don’t underestimate the effects of the natural cycle of the year on markets – the pressure to perform in the face of increasingly uncertain news flow is driven by a sense of opportunities and an awareness of time – which for 2023 are running short.
Stocks are looking forward to a double dose of joy from strong tech earnings and the Fed close to end of the tightening phase, but these may be Potemkin Markets.. foundations in the sand and little behind the façade… says the grumpy bond trader…
Dangerous times ahead as politicians weigh up the pros of sacrificing long-term climate and environmental goals for short-term electoral gains.
The UK is focused on all the wrong things – as the economy stumbles towards disaster, we’re fixated on sleaze. The Chancellor thinks he can fix it by directing the financial sector, confirming how little he knows about the City.
Markets have been far more positive than expected in 2023 – thus far. There is still much uncertainty out there, but what is the market missing? I have two particular under-played threats to watch – corporate debt and social unrest.
The Thames Water debacle is shaping up to be a critical “Judder” moment for the UK. Public utility privatisations decades ago have left a legacy of underinvestment and broken services. The bills will be enormous – and crippling - creating a potential investment crisis.
Phillips Curve economics calls for higher unemployment to calm inflation. Great plan says The Bank and Chancellor while consigning millions of UK citizens to penury. We need something better than wrecking lives and the economy.
Markets are focused on the immediate debt-ceiling crisis, and the short-term game of guessing rates vs inflation. Down the line are the bigger challenges of the medium and long-term: issues we need to be investing in now to garner long-run returns or just to survive!
Q2 opens up with a new oil shock, but after the volatile start to 2023 what will roil markets next? Might it be further geopolitical instability?
Markets are taking a breather after the recent wobbles, but the threat board has never looked, well, more threatening! Relax. Go see Guys and Dolls instead and treat yourself to a great night out.. tomorrow it will be miserable again!
