As we start a new week of dismal markets, depressing political news, rising inflation and lots of what next worries… relax.. the Sun will come up tomorrow. Not so sure about the economy though…
The Fed just aggressively hiked 75 bp in the midst of the first major correction since 2009, making clear the game has changed, and we’re into a whole new cycle. While the market correction remains ongoing, when it flips, it will flip swiftly. Already there are positive signals to be seen – but only if you look outside the box.
We’re officially in a bear market, but markets are still massively overvalued. The laws of Mean Reversion are immutable – some stocks are going lower. Inflation, Bond Markets and Confidence are all flashing danger signals.
Dead Cat Bounce or a renewed upside trend? The range of opinions and views on where markets are headed is diverse and confused – will bonds and stocks recover, or will energy, food and inflation shocks further destabilise sentiment. These are dangerous times, but fools will always rush in.
In bonds there is pain as prices tumble – but that does not change the fundamentals of investing in bonds. The risk is rising bond yields will expose the dangerous over-valuations low rate distortion has caused across other financial-assets, perhaps causing more than a few bubbles to pop.
Tech stocks have taken a thumping this year – a well-timed reality check or a threat to bring down the whole market? Probably time for a clean out of all the speculative, improbable and fantastical perpetual motion machines that beguiled IPO and SPAC investors during the easy money era. Reality bites and it’s time to get real..
Occasionally the Morning Porridge strikes a lucky insight on markets – this morning here are some thoughts on how 2022 markets and events may or may not develop. If they occur I shall hail myself an investment genius. If not, can we quietly forget them?
What can David Attenborough’s Green Planet teach us about Tech Stocks, why they are overvalued, and why rising rates suggest the game is over?
Let me present a list of things to worry about next year. Inflation, US and China growth, Stagflation, Central Banks, Stocks, Climate and Equality, etc, etc.. But the big risks will be the consequences of US Politics and a Liquidity Meltdown in the Credit Markets.
Did you feel markets judder when Powell spoke? The mood has changed as markets wake up to the danger Central Banks might just start doing their jobs. As Winter begins, Europe faces a bleak energy crisis of its own making. My solution? Buy a generator!