Its “Freedom Day” in the UK, but it feels same as, same as. Bond markets look stressed, but freak weather is raising the probability government intervention dwarfing the scale of the pandemic may become necessary. There will not be a gradual, ordered progression to a new higher temperature climate. Instead… the reality looks like high-cost chaotic freak-weather events becoming increasingly common. The cost could hit trillions.
US 10-year bonds and US equity are in fully rally mode. They show contradictory expectations for a stalled recovery and future strong growth! How can that be? Because the market is about what participants collectively think – and how markets think has been utterly changed by 12 years of monetary experimentation, repression, and distortion. We’ve got to change the way we think about markets.
There is general sense “something wicked this way comes” towards current priced for perfection markets, but trying to define the exact N0-see-um likely to trigger a market correction or meltdown is a notoriously pointless game. However, there are plenty of ways to prepare for whatever comes next….
Central Banks are playing the “lower for longer” interest rate card to reassure markets on growth. There are always consequences of such actions – ranging from bubbles, delusion and fraud. Eventually consequences trigger change, and reassessment – which is driving the rotation from Hope as a Strategy Tech into Fundamental stocks – Autos are a good example.
Why is Europe suspending the AstraZeneca Vaccine? What’s the real story? And; The trick to investing in disruptive tech is to spot the solution to a need, rather than an answer looking for a question.
Seven factors to understand the market shift that’s roiling markets; bond yields and inflation, distortion, recovery, leverage, tech vs reality, exuberance, and value.
This morning: Welcome to the New Morning Porridge! Its International Women’s Day! How strong might be the fallout from the collapse of Greensill and unravelling of Gupta in a market already wary of politicians?
Central Banks face a critical ask; how to raise rates to avert fuelling the financial asset bubble without triggering market meltdown. And some brief thoughts on Scotland.
This morning: While Bonds dominate market moves, the BIG future investment picture is about how geopolitics move towards new US relationship with China – particularly where Europe stands. The US is potentially the biggest loser
Congratulations to Italy’s Team Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli winning the sailing Prada Cup on Sunday morning to knock the UK out of this year’s America’s Cup.