We’re officially in a bear market, but markets are still massively overvalued. The laws of Mean Reversion are immutable – some stocks are going lower. Inflation, Bond Markets and Confidence are all flashing danger signals.
Crypto has fallen 30% through May. The headlines about scams, illegality, and outright theft obscure the key facts; its overly complex, vulnerable and doesn’t actually do anything we can’t already do better. It’s terribly clever, but a pointless, busted bubble.
NFTs are in the press for all the right reasons – insider trading, zero value and scams, but as digital assets in a digital world have enormous potential – for making your wallet lighter….
April 2022 will go down in market history as the month it all became obvious.. But what? That the global economy is in need of repair, markets are overly euphoric and consumers can’t consume when they are broke.
Some investment banks are picking up cheap Russian assets – which negates the purpose and aims of sanctions, and will simply fuel Putin’s propaganda machine. Meanwhile, Blain’s stupidity index is only down 38% - which shows there are still greater fools out there…
Tech stocks have taken a thumping this year – a well-timed reality check or a threat to bring down the whole market? Probably time for a clean out of all the speculative, improbable and fantastical perpetual motion machines that beguiled IPO and SPAC investors during the easy money era. Reality bites and it’s time to get real..
Occasionally the Morning Porridge strikes a lucky insight on markets – this morning here are some thoughts on how 2022 markets and events may or may not develop. If they occur I shall hail myself an investment genius. If not, can we quietly forget them?
Crypto currencies have confused the way we think about money and wealth. Its deliberate. It helps layer the crypto narrative they are modern and somehow better than fiat money. It’s fake news. Crypto is full of inconsistencies and outright bullsh*t – it’s time regulators did their jobs!
How much longer can the market madness continue? Traditionally they remain irrational for longer than you can stay solvent. Central banks must be terrified – damned if they act, damned if they don’t. The basis of markets is under threat from unbridled speculation fuelled by their actions.
If there is common theme to some of the market’s speculative bubbles its their thin supporting veneers of fake credibility and plausible deniability. Trump’s Social Media empire, Bitcoin and Evergrande – all share a core of fundamental emptiness.