The threat list to global markets lengthens, but the Truth will be found in the bond markets. Like inflation and rising rates, the effects of a bond market slide are lagging – It’s going to take other financial assets time to catch up on the bond crash!
Are global economies heading for a soft or crash landing? Why the Republicans seeking to impeach President Biden have just played a brilliant short-term political hand, and what the ARM IPO tells us about gullibility in bubble times.
Nvidia confirms the AI everything bubble! FOMO means everyone will play catch up! There is a growing divergence likely as inflation, growth and interest rates spells deep trouble for Europe and the ECB, while the USA recovers and the UK muddles through.
Markets have been far more positive than expected in 2023 – thus far. There is still much uncertainty out there, but what is the market missing? I have two particular under-played threats to watch – corporate debt and social unrest.
Let’s assume the US Debt crisis is averted. What comes next? A full-on speculative bubble and hype around Artificial Intelligence is underway. How will AI influence trading strategies, or turn markets into gray-goo? Will AI trading prove to be little more than finding new innovative ways to relieve retail investors of their money?
AI has become the markets new, new thang/bubble as investors pile into the new, new narrative forgetting the fundamental rules of investment are about generating dull, boring, predictable returns which look frothy in hot stocks, negative yields in bonds, thus positive returns from real assets stand out!
Markets are focused on the immediate debt-ceiling crisis, and the short-term game of guessing rates vs inflation. Down the line are the bigger challenges of the medium and long-term: issues we need to be investing in now to garner long-run returns or just to survive!
“Prepare to be assimilated species 5618.”
AI is dominating the headlines. Its either the greatest threat to mankind ever (as has been every economic revolution since someone discovered fire), or its going to make us all better off. The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.. but it’s bound to raise uncertainty.
Microsoft would rather do business in Europe than the UK when it comes to global gaming. Name me a famous European game? BIG TECH is turning stale. Bring on the next new, new thing.
Microsoft taking a controlling stake in ChatGPT highlights how the world is going to change as AI becomes embedded across news, data and analysis. Compare my take on the market with the AI. As GPT rolls out it will trigger a new Tech revolution, but how will it be controlled and what are the dangers?
