Microsoft taking a controlling stake in ChatGPT highlights how the world is going to change as AI becomes embedded across news, data and analysis. Compare my take on the market with the AI. As GPT rolls out it will trigger a new Tech revolution, but how will it be controlled and what are the dangers?
2022 has been a challenging market, and its likely to reveal to millions of savers just how poorly their money is managed. Its time to have some serious discussions about asset management and how to focus on serving clients, rather than them as big businesses!
Financial fraud has been around as long as money, but FOMO and opportunistic shysters are exploiting regulatory inaction to exploit the credulity of savers like never before. It’s time for Regulators to wake up and hang a few bad-uns “pour encourage les autres” and make clear Alternative market risks!
Yesterday’s ongoing pain in crashing financial asset markets demonstrates the need to diversify portfolios and decorrelated returns. Shipping is one such asset; returns have been boosted by scarcity as a result of the pandemic – the question is: can these returns be maintained?
Wind power is the not the renewable energy panacea we are told it is. It is part of the climate change solution, but we need to understand it’s limitations, and not allow it to distort energy transition. More should be spent on alternatives like tide, hydro and thermal.
In bonds there is pain as prices tumble – but that does not change the fundamentals of investing in bonds. The risk is rising bond yields will expose the dangerous over-valuations low rate distortion has caused across other financial-assets, perhaps causing more than a few bubbles to pop.
As a difficult 1st Quarter-End approaches, markets look fraught, but so do the fundamentals of the Western Free Market Economies – Capitalism needs maintenance and repair work on dishonest politics, immoral companies and broken bureaucracies.
Airlines are likely to get a knee-jerk boost when global travel reopens post pandemic, but the outlook facing the aviation sector in terms of balance sheet shattered airlines, struggling aircraft manufacturers, reluctant consumers and a glut of older aircraft has seldom been so uncertain. Yet, in times of confusion there is opportunity!
Occasionally the Morning Porridge strikes a lucky insight on markets – this morning here are some thoughts on how 2022 markets and events may or may not develop. If they occur I shall hail myself an investment genius. If not, can we quietly forget them?
Jay Powell keeps his job and faces the inflation quandary – hiking rates too soon risks recovery, but inflation needs addressed. The likelihood is lower rates for longer – which will juice euphoric markets further. What’s the alternative? Stop buying financial assets and buy the real economy!
