Ukraine – What will the Long-Term Look Like?

Blain’s Morning Porridge – March 22^nd 2022. Ukraine – What will the Long-Term Look Like?

“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.”

This morning: Who really knows what is happening in Ukraine, or what the players are thinking? The long-term economic consequences could be huge, marking the moment the post Cold-War global consensus and order breaks down. The potential consequences include social and political instability, war, famine, and who knows what else.

But first… the light comedic relief… Forgive the lack of Porridge yesterday but the brilliant new cabin design on British Airway’s A-350 club class does not fit a charger for a MacBook. The purser admitted I was not the first person to make the observation. This morning’s photo is what passes for a business class meal on BA. Britain’s answer to Aeroflot continues to impress… Not.

Back in the real world, the Economic consequences of the War in Ukraine are going to be huge.

All kinds of noise about possible “outcomes” are playing out across the airways. A Turkish brokered ceasefire or maybe an “exit-ramp” for Putin including a No-Nato Membership for Ukraine promise and Crimea in return for an advance backwards to the previous borders. These are balanced by President Biden warning of an imminent cyberstrike – which we should pay attention to based on how good his intel has been.

The brutal reality is Ukraine is being progressively flattened. Their troops are taking heavy casualties. Watching raw territorial recruits being trained is heartbreaking. They will be thrown into the meatgrinder to frustrate the Russian advance, but how much time they gain is debatable. It is desperately sad and tragic – but what choice do they have?

The reality is outcomes in Ukraine remain guesswork..

Yet, for all the uncertainty, the death, wanton destruction, and a rising refugee crisis, the first thing we’ve learnt following the Russian invasion is markets are apparently impervious to negativity and risk. That won’t last forever – reality has a nasty habit of catching up and biting hard.

Take a close look at the numbers underlying stronger stocks – volumes are weak and unconvincing. The recent bond slide and flattening curve speaks of a nasty and unpredictable recession to come.

Such fair and foul storms of uncertainty hitting markets I have not previously seen. Whether it’s the end of the QE market picnic, Central banks hiking rates, the rising risk of monetary and fiscal policy mistakes, the pandemic, the approaching cost of living shock about to crush consumers, inflation, recession, or possible stagflation, broken and rebroken supply chains, rising geopolitical instability, and – as the icing on the cake – let’s throw in the largest most bloody European conflict since 1945 with a not intangible possibility of nuclear war….

But, where’s the panic? The markets seem to be thriving.

The market is not a rational beast.

Prices represent what market participants believe, rather than the economic actuality. Mr Market is simply an enormous voting machine weighing the hopes, beliefs and opinions of every single market participant. The market does not measure actual reality or facts. At the moment – it is discounting any pain likely to come. The fact prices remain “euphoric” tells us participants still hope for positive outcomes – despite the multiple tensions facing us – and are therefore taking buy-the-dip-risks rather than battening down for a possible storm.

It’s what’s happening below the surface, out of sight, that matters. It may take many months for consequences of Ukraine to really impose themselves on market sentiment. Russia’s move on Ukraine shocked the west – it will impose massive costs. The effect of long-term sanctions will cripple Russia – perhaps fatally in view of its hopeless demographics, creating yet more instability.

Events trigger consequences – and how these will play out is frankly a guessing game. Ripples from Ukraine threaten to swamp the whole globalised marketplace.

The two immediate threats in plain sight are Food and Energy security. We are in for a long period of price instability in both. Ukraine accounts for a significant portion of agricultural production – its literally the Breadbasket of Europe, but also regional emerging markets in terms of wheat, soya and sunflower oil. Food prices will rise. Equally importantly, potential food shortages in Africa could trigger a new refugee crisis into Europe – which may be aligned today on Ukraine, but could struggle with a new destabilising wave of migrants.

Europe will wean itself off Russian oil and gas, but that will not be an overnight transition – which means long term price instability. Its already clear the Gulf States are happy to play off Russia vs the West. They have been waiting since the oil-shock of 1973 for an opportunity to play neutral and keep prices high. They are also very aware Europe can’t rely on the USA for its energy security – in the next presidential election it’s looking increasingly likely a pro-Trump populist Republican party will trend isolationist, and at the very least pivot away from Europe.

Europe has limited time to effectively rearm, secure its energy and organise its own defences. It can be done – and the signals are encouraging of increased European cooperation and an invigorated EU.  The risk is how will Europe fare if a global recession on the back of broken Chinese rooted supply chains, and an inflation spike, or a new refugee crisis? The risks are significant.

There is clearly more at stake than just markets – the next few months could see threat levels decline. On the balance of probabilities is that likely? Not really. At core the tensions boil down to how effectively the Liberal-democratic west can counter the threats of resurgent autocratic nationalism from China, Russia and the risks others play the opportunity to their best advantage.

But, crisis is also opportunity. Hence the shift back into defence and energy stocks. If the big one is coming, let’s not deny it, but prepare for it.

The force that balanced the tension twixt the autocratic East and the Liberal Democratic West since the last cold war was always commerce and the opportunity for poorer nations to raise themselves on the back of trade. It happened for China. Ukraine demonstrates how these chains are breaking.

The big risk is China. It clearly wants to internalise and continue to grow its economy, secure its border and expand its economic hegemony. It can do so in partnership with the West. Or it can chose conflict – which is what the Generals (who have a vested interest in new toys) tell us will happen:  that China will take the opportunity to engage in a land-grab on Taiwan and risk economic estrangement.  But, based on what they’ve seen in Ukraine, and the effect of Russian sanctions, we can hope they favour trade. It would make more sense.

Russia… frankly isn’t even a player in the Game of Geopolitics anymore. They’ve broken themselves on Ukraine. The sanctions will leave its energy industry in tatters as expertise and spare parts dry up. It may remain a major supplier of global instability through cheap weapons, immoral mercs, and unpredictability, yet Putin’s throw of the dice in Ukraine increasingly looks a losing gamble. How he plays his last few cards to sustain his kleptocracy is the known unknown.

The immediate threat is Russian unpredictability. The Long-Term hope is China sees a better future as part of a post-Ukraine globalised economy. Which is all back to guessing… what happens next…

Five Things to Read This Morning

BBerg – Biden sees Cyberstrike Risk as Russia gets Desperate

FT – Alibaba increases stock buyback to $25 bln to boost shareprice

FT – US Bond Market Suffers worst month since Trump was elected

WSJ – Russia’s Push for Self-Sufficient Economy Fails in face of Sanctions

The Atlantic – America’s Hesitation is Heartbreaking

Out of time, and back to the day job…

Bill Blain

Strategist – Shard Capital